Network Reliability And Interoperability Council IV (NRIC IV)

Summary of Meeting

April 14, 1999

I. INTRODUCTION

NRIC IV convened its third meeting at 1:30 P.M. on April 14, 1999 in the Commission Meeting Room at the new headquarters of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC or Commission), 445 12th Street, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20554. In accordance with Public Law 92-463 (The Federal Advisory Committee Act), the meeting was open to the public. Approximately 120 people attended this meeting. An audio feed of the meeting was provided through the Year 2000 website maintained by the FCC (www.fcc.gov). The meeting was also carried on closed circuit television (with close captioning) to the meeting room and to various sites around the Commission.

Panelists Present

Panelist-Presenters

FCC Staff Members Present

Ms. Marsha MacBride, Executive Director of the FCC Year 2000 Task Force, a member of the NRIC Steering Committee, and the Designated Federal Official for the NRIC, introduced Mr. Frank Ianna, President AT&T Network Services. Mr. Ianna presided at the meeting on behalf of Mr. Michael Armstrong, the NRIC Chairman and the Chairman and CEO of AT&T.

With only about 261 days left, Mr. Ianna noted the Year 2000 conversion problem is an industry responsibility that cannot be fixed by legislation or regulation. He also said NRIC presents a unique opportunity for its members to share information and to assist one another with this problem.

Peter Kind (representing the President’s Council for Year 2000 Conversion) explained he is the Director of the Year 2000 Information Coordination Center. He stated that his Center is being established as an extension of the President’s Council to receive, process, and coordinate information at the national level as we approach the Year 2000 conversion. He noted the Coordination Center will not replace any existing agencies and will supplement them only to the extent necessary to present the "big picture."

Mr. Ianna detailed the agenda for the meeting to include (a) review of previous NRIC recommendations, (b) reports from the NRIC focus groups, and (c) an explanation of NRIC’s proposed "Communications Plan."

II. PREVIOUS NRIC RECOMMENDATIONS

In response to the one NRIC recommendation from the last meeting -- that assessment activity in the wireless telecommunication industry be increased, Ms. MacBride reported that the Commission recently conducted additional assessments in this area and that the results were included in the March 30 FCC/NRIC Y2K Communications Sector Report. She noted that the utility of that FCC assessment was limited because only about 31 percent of the carriers surveyed -- representing less than 40 percent of the commercial wireless customer base -- actually responded to the survey, but that this number had increased to over 50 percent as of April 14. Pending collection of additional responses by the Commission, she explained that a certain amount of Year 2000 conversion risk must still be associated with this group. She also noted the April 14, 1999, final report of the Year 2000 Inter-Network Interoperability Working Group of the Advisory Group for Network Issues within the Cellular Telecommunications Industry Association (CTIA) (www.wow-com.com) could add to the data already collected.

In response to a second NRIC recommendation on mapping key U.S. government installations with telecommunications Year 2000 compliance areas, Ms. MacBride reported NRIC has been working with the National Communications System (NCS) to achieve this goal for Federal agencies.

The remaining NRIC recommendations from the last meeting concerned assessment of international readiness for the Year 2000 conversion and Year 2000 support for U.S. companies operating overseas. In response to these recommendations, Mr. John Pasqua of AT&T (Chairman of the NRIC Steering Committee) noted that meetings had been held at the Department of State (DOS) during which requests for assistance were presented in three areas (a) gaining information about the readiness plans of foreign countries, (b) offering Year 2000 technical assistance to foreign countries particularly to those that appear to be most at risk, and (c) asking these countries to identify country-specific contingency planning coordinators. Mr. Pasqua reported that State Department personnel have agreed informally to assist the U.S. telecommunications industry in this effort and that a formal NRIC request for such assistance would soon be delivered to DOS.

Commissioner Michael Powell joined the meeting. He thanked those associated with NRIC for being astonishingly effective colleagues of the Commission and the entire Federal Government in working on Year 2000 conversion. He also expressed appreciation to those who contributed to the recent FCC/NRIC Y2K Communications Sector Report. He urged everyone to follow-up immediately on the concerns raised in that report and in the course of this meeting of NRIC.

III. FOCUS GROUP REPORTS

A. Focus Group 1

1. General. Focus Group 1 (FG1) has responsibility for determining how the Year 2000 problem could adversely affect public telecommunications networks. It includes a subcommittee on Year 2000 network assessment (headed by G. Roth of GTE), a subcommittee on Year 2000 testing (headed by L. Scerbo of Telcordia Technologies), and a subcommittee on Year 2000 contingency planning (headed by R.L. Bennett of Lucent). Peter Spring from AT&T identified the following key messages from these subcommittees.

2. Key Messages From Subcommittees.

Network Assessment Subcommittee. Major carriers are on track to complete Y2K remediation programs by June 1999 with 90 percent of local and 99 percent of long distance switches already remediated by March 1999. Mid and small-size carriers are currently projected to complete remediation in third and fourth quarters.

In international area, there has been a significant increase in the perceived risk of Year 2000 problems in foreign countries. Seventy-five percent of those countries reported on in January now show an increase in the perceived risk of their encountering Year 2000 problems.

Testing Subcommittee. Industry best practices and vendor compliance information will soon be posted on the NRIC’s Internet website (www.nric.org) primarily to assist small and mid-size companies.

Major local exchange carriers and interexchange carriers have finished interoperability testing or have plans in place to complete such testing; this testing has covered or will cover the overall majority of exchange access equipment, interexchange switch, and signaling equipment vendors. Included in this interoperability testing was separate wireless/wireline equipment trials as well as wireline/wireline trials.

Seventy-seven companies responded to recent NRIC interoperability test surveys including 65 local exchange carriers, 4 interexchange carriers, and 5 equipment vendors. Of these companies, 18 have planned interoperability tests. This testing will include the products of 28 different vendors. While significant testing has been completed by industry associations and by individual carrier-to-carrier trials, no major interoperability gaps have been identified to date.

Contingency Planning Subcommittee.

Earlier contingency planning templates for telephone companies have been extended to include 38 "what if" scenarios primarily to help smaller and mid-size companies assess and mitigate risks.

A communications plan has been drafted to enable Federal agencies and the telecommunications industry to exchange data and provide information to the public not only about the Year 2000 conversion but also about other key rollover dates (Sept. 9, 1999, and February 28-March 1, 2000). This plan involves the U.S. National Coordinating Center (NCC) and the National Communications System (NCS) as well as participants from other government agencies and a cross-section of domestic and international telecommunications providers. Plan to be implemented by September 1999.

A contingency planning workshop is scheduled for April 27, 1999, at the Washington Dulles Hilton near Dulles Airport in the D.C., area. Co-sponsored by NRIC and USTA, this workshop will give representatives of small and mid-size companies a chance to get some "hands-on" experience in contingency planning. Information on the templates, the communications plan, and the workshop will be available on the NRIC website.

3. Questions and Comments

In the development scenarios for the purpose of contingency planning, Commissioner Powell asked whether consideration had been given to "secondary" as well as "primary" consequences of Year 2000 failures. For example, he described the potential for substantially heightened network congestion during the Year 2000 rollover and the possibility of increased attacks by "hackers" and others on critical infrastructures during this period.

In response, Mr. Spring stated that Year 2000 contingency planning does address the potential for increased network traffic as a result of Year 2000 problems.

Commissioner Powell also noted that, during the critical Year 2000 weekend period, it might well become important to identify as rapidly as possible whether a particular system breakdown was caused by an internal Year 2000 "infection" or by some external threat to that system. Such critical information could not only enable national leaders to respond appropriately to the immediate problem but it could also permit them to dispel false rumors that the problem is related to the Year 2000 conversion, if it is determined that the problem is not Year 2000-related.

Noting NRIC received inter-operability survey responses from only seventy-seven of a much larger group of carriers whose networks must inter-operate successfully to avoid Year 2000 problems, Jerry Varcak of TCA asked about those carriers that did not respond. While many carriers either did not conduct interoperability testing themselves or did not report the results of such tests to NRIC, Mr. Spring noted that it is not necessary for all these carriers to conduct such tests. Because these tests involved equipment used by a large number of carriers, many that did not participate in the survey could well be waiting to use the information gathered from those that did.

Addressing Mr. Brad Ramsay of NARUC, Commissioner Powell encouraged NARUC to publicize the upcoming contingency planning workshop to its members so that more smaller and mid-size carriers that have an interest in such planning will become aware of the workshop.

4. Report of Network Assessment Subcommittee

General. Regarding the potential impact of the Year 2000 problems on U.S. telecommunications, Mr. Gerry Roth of GTE Technology Programs reported, on behalf of the Network Assessment Subcommittee, that the U.S. looks pretty good and appears to be okay. Internationally, however, the subcommittee does have some doubts and concerns. Most U.S. telephone service providers are on track to complete Year 2000 remediation programs by June 1999 with 90 percent of the local exchange and 99 percent of long distance switches already remediated as of March 1999. Switch remediation within a network is important because those switches tend to be a leading indicator of the status of that network. Mid- and small-size carriers appear to be on track to complete remediation of their switches in the third and fourth quarters of 1999.

All major carriers predict the Year 2000 completion and roll-out of all essential systems and products by June 1999; to allow some margin of error NRIC estimates 98 per cent by June 1999; none of these carriers contacted by NRIC has indicated any technical difficulty with the completion of these programs

In the international area, there has been a significant increase in the perceived risk of Year 2000 compliance problems in foreign countries since the Subcommittee’s last report, as well as a significant increase in the number of countries reporting. Of the approximately 225 countries in the world (of which approximately 194 are in the United Nations), NRIC now has information on 191 of these countries as compared with the 84 reported on in December of 1998. These 191 countries account for approximately 96 percent of the worldwide traffic in telecommunications. Of the 84 foreign countries assessed in December of 1998 and reported on in January of this year, 75 percent now show an increase in the perceived risk of their encountering Year 2000 compliance problems. This appears to be a fairly significant problem.

Large Local Exchange Carriers. Based on data from its own survey, NRIC estimates that, as of March of 1999, that the large local exchange carriers -- those that serve more than 92 percent of the access lines in the U.S. (approximately 200 million access lines) – had completed 99 percent of their planned assessment efforts, 94 percent of their renovation efforts, 90 percent of their validation efforts, and 92 percent of their implementation efforts. These and other carrier data presented by the subcommittee only cover essential systems.

By June of 1999, NRIC estimates these large local exchange carriers will have completed 100 percent of their planned assessment efforts, 100 percent of their renovation efforts, 100 percent of their validation efforts, and 98 percent of their implementation efforts. While these carriers expect all implementation efforts to be completed by June of 1999, NRIC employs an estimate of 98 percent to allow for some margin of error.

Also as of March of 1999, NRIC estimates that these large local exchange carriers had 90 percent of their switches ready for the Year 2000 conversion, 84 percent of their non-switch network components ready, and 85 percent of their network and information systems applications ready.

By June of 1999, NRIC estimates that these large local exchange carriers will have 100 percent of their switches ready for the Year 2000 conversion, 98 percent of their non-switch network components ready, and 98 percent of their network and information systems applications ready. While these carriers expect all essential systems and products to be ready by June of 1999, NRIC employs an estimate of 98 percent to allow for some margin of error.

Mid-size Local Exchange Carriers. Based on data collected by both NRIC and USTA, NRIC estimates that as of December of 1998, the mid-size local exchange carriers had completed 98 percent of their planned assessment efforts, 66 percent of their renovation efforts, 86 percent of their validation efforts, and 84 percent of their implementation efforts. Also, as of that month, NRIC reports that these carriers had 86 percent of their switches ready for the Year 2000 conversion, 57 percent of their non-switch network components ready, and 34 percent of their network and information systems applications ready.

Small Local Exchange Carriers. Based on data collected by NRIC and the FCC, NRIC estimates that as of December of 1998, the small local exchange carriers had completed 49 percent of their planned assessment efforts, 18 percent of their renovation efforts, 13 percent of their validation efforts, and 17 percent of their implementation efforts. Also as of that month, NRIC reports that these carriers had 19 percent of their switches ready for the Year 2000 conversion, 14 percent of their non-switch network components ready, and 20 percent of their network and information systems applications ready.

Mr. Roth noted that three factors that may contribute to the lag by the small companies in these areas. Read together, these factors suggest that the results for these carriers should not be catastrophic.

First, the weighting of these small companies’ contribution to the overall network traffic in the U.S. A second factor is the volume of work remaining to be done; many of these small local exchange carriers actually have only one or two switches. Accordingly, as these companies upgrade their networks later this year, they are expected to move very quickly from low percentages of Year 2000 readiness to much higher percentages. A third factor is how these small companies actually complete this work. For example, looking at the small companies as a group, there are a number of people working on these problems simultaneously. Thus, their remediation work can be completed more rapidly because it is not as serious as such efforts may be in the larger companies

Questions. Mr. Ianna asked the representative of OPASTCO and USTA if there was anything NRIC could do through their organizations to get the word out to the smaller companies to alert them to the testing that has already been done and otherwise help them become more knowledgeable about potential Year 2000 problems. He expressed particular concern that some smaller companies may be missing the Year 2000 issue entirely and may not yet have begun to work on these problems.

Mr. John McHugh of OPASTCO responded that all information developed by NRIC is passed on to members of OPASTCO. For example, those members are informed of the websites established as well as the interoperability and other testing that has been completed. He also confirmed that many smaller companies have only one switch and are generally on track for the Year 2000 conversion.

Mr. Paul Hart of USTA reported that USTA has established websites and other links to enable telephone companies to obtain Year 2000 information. He noted one of the biggest difficulties is securing information from companies with regard to the status of their Year 2000 preparations. Such companies may be completely on track with regard to their Year 2000 preparations but they often are reluctant to provide much information in response to the formal inquiries that they receive. While USTA cannot force its members to disclose the extent of their Year 2000 preparations, Mr. Hart noted that in some instances where USTA has had questions about the Year 2000 readiness of a particular company and the folks at that company were contacted directly, USTA learned informally that that they did have Year 2000 plans, that they were otherwise attending to these issues, but that their plans typically extend later into 1999.

Mr. Ianna noted one of the obvious concerns emerging from this NRIC meeting is the extent to which the smaller telephone companies are lagging the rest of the industry in their preparations for the Year 2000 conversion. In that regard, he asked if NRIC should seek to communicate directly with these smaller companies on these Year 2000 matters or if it would it be sufficient that theses concerns were reflected in the minutes of this meeting.

Mr. Hart of USTA stated, once USTA and OPASTCO have the final record of this meeting, that they would make that information available in a specific release to their members and would encourage those members increase the industry’s comfort level by providing additional information with regard to their preparations for the Year 2000.

Mr. Ianna asked Mr. Hart about the percentage of USTA members that have already indicated they would be ready for the Year 2000 conversion as compared with those that have not so indicated. Based on available data, Mr. Hart said USTA members had a pretty good understanding of these issues and that he was not aware of any USTA members that did not anticipate being compliant prior to the Year 2000. In a number of cases, however, their readiness plans raise concern because those plans do not call for final implementation (such as upgrading switch software) until late in 1999.

Mr. Roth noted that NRIC, with the help of the National Communications System (NCS), had updated a map identifying those areas within each state served by telephone companies that were not covered by the most recent NRIC report. He noted a copy of that map had been provided to NARUC along with a list of all of the relevant companies and that NARUC was expected to respond to NRIC sometime in the third quarter of this year.

Commissioner Powell asked what unique reasons these smaller carriers are offering as significant impediments that might cause their Year 2000 conversion efforts to lag behind those of the larger carriers. For example, he asked if these carriers claim to be facing capital problems, technical problems, logistical problems, or all of these.

Mr. Roth said he did not think either NRIC or the FCC had good answers to these questions because they are not in touch with all 1300 of these smaller carriers. He said, however, that some symptoms of the problem could be identified. One symptom seems to be the lack of adequate capital to finish Year 2000 preparations but delays in the procurement of necessary upgrades and similar items seem to be more of a problem than the lack of capital.

If, contrary to the current NRIC data, so many smaller telephone companies are actually ready or near ready for the Year 2000 conversion, Commissioner Powell questioned why those companies are not publicizing that readiness more enthusiastically to promote industry and public confidence in their Year 2000 preparations. He noted that numerous private firms – including many big companies—at first claimed that they were prepared for the Year 2000 conversion only to discover later that the job turned out to be far more difficult and time-consuming than originally thought. Once Year 2000 preparations are completed, however, many of these firms publish enthusiastically their readiness. In light of that experience, Commissioner Powell said it is difficult not to be somewhat concerned about the Year 2000 preparations of these smaller companies when they seem hesitant to publicize enthusiastically their Year 2000 readiness or at least to lay out their plans to achieve such readiness.

Mr. Roth indicated he thought a part of the problem with these smaller companies is simply awareness; that is, understanding that these Year 2000 problems exist and that they need to do something about them.

Mr. Hart responded by stating some telephone companies may be hesitant to publicize their Year 2000 readiness enthusiastically because such readiness probably is not quite the same as other issues they face. First, he noted all telephone companies worry just a little bit about their Year 2000 readiness. While these companies do their best, none can be 100 percent sure it will not experience some sort of Year 2000 problem. Second, in cases where USTA has not been able to get direct written responses from telephone companies regarding their Year 2000 readiness, USTA has found -- in talking to some of these companies -- that they are sure that they are all right but that they are not comfortable making any statements to that effect. Some of these smaller companies view their individual exposure on this issue as very different from that of the larger companies. Third, as we move through 1999 and get more information from these companies on their Year 2000 readiness, Mr. Hart said we will get more and more sure about this issue. No one, however, can say with absolute certainty that everything is going to be all right; there will always be some margin of risk in this area. Finally, Mr. Hart acknowledged the concerns expressed by Commissioner Powell and promised USTA would address those concerns, to the extent it could, with its members, but he cautioned against excessive concern in this area.

Major Inter-exchange Carriers. Based on the data it collected regarding their essential systems, NRIC estimates that as of March 1999, the major inter-exchange carriers -- those that account for more than 82 percent of the revenues for such service in the U.S. – had completed 100 percent of their planned assessment efforts, 97 percent of their renovation efforts, 94 percent of their validation efforts, and 86 percent of their implementation efforts. Also as of that month, NRIC estimates that these carriers had 99 percent of their switches ready for the Year 2000 conversion, 85 percent of their non-switch network components ready, and 89 percent of their network and information systems applications ready.

By June of 1999, NRIC estimates the major inter-exchange carriers will have completed 100 percent of their planned assessment efforts, 100 percent of their renovation efforts, 100 percent of their validation efforts, and 98 percent of their implementation efforts.. Also, by that month, NRIC estimates that these carriers will have 100 percent of their switches ready for the Year 2000 conversion, 98 percent of their non-switch network components ready, and 98 percent of their network and information systems applications ready. While these carriers expect all essential systems and products to be ready by June of 1999, NRIC employs an estimate of 98 percent to allow for some margin of error.

International Telecommunications. Mr. Roth noted that, among the 84 foreign countries studied in both December 1998 and March 1999, seventy-five percent showed an increase in perceived risk of Year 2000 problems. He explained that this country-specific data was compiled from six different independent assessments conducted by various public and private entities. In response to a question, Mr. Roth explained that, in the preponderance of countries where more than one assessment was available, those assessments were in relative agreement but that all six assessments did not agree on the Year 2000 readiness of every country.

From a March 1999 study that included 191 countries, Mr. Roth presented data on the perceived Year 2000 risks in eight regions of the world. That study discloses the greatest aggregate perceived risks in Sub-Saharan Africa and in the Indian sub-continent and the least perceived risks in Western Europe (including Israel) and in North America. The study also shows that, between December 1998 and March 1999, the aggregate perceived risk had increased in all regions of the world, except for the Central and South American region. In that region, the aggregate perceived risk decreased somewhat but still remained in the "high risk" category. Comparing individual countries within each region, there continued to be a wide divergence in perceived Year 2000 risks as of March 1999.

Mr. Roth also presented data on perceived Year 2000 risks in individual foreign countries sorted into two groups based on the extent of the 1997 annual minutes of traffic between the U.S. and that country. From March 1999 data on those countries with more than 200 million such minutes, it appears that Columbia, China, India, and the Dominican Republic show the highest perceived risks and that the United Kingdom, Australia, Switzerland, and Hong Kong show the lowest perceived risks.

Following up on the earlier presentations by Ms. MacBride and Mr. Pasqua, Mr. Roth reviewed the status the remaining recommendations from NRIC’s last meeting. In particular, he described plans (a) to clarify what telephone companies meant when they declare that they are "done" with Year 2000 preparations and (b) to use tri-industry meetings to assess jointly the Year 2000 impact on the electric, telecommunications, and oil and gas industries.

2. Focus Group 2: CPE Readiness, Testing, and Contingency Planning

1. General. Michael Cooke of Nortel noted that Focus Group 2 elected to present its final report at this April meeting because time is running out, end users are a vital component in this effort, and NRIC needs to get the message out to these end users and others. He also that noted details of the various Focus Group 2 subcommittee reports would be posted on the NRIC website. One important message from the last meeting is that end-users are responsible for checking their own telecommunications equipment and that neither the government nor the industry is going to do that work for them. Regarding customer premises equipment (CPE), Focus Group 2 has not found any major Year 2000 problems or industry-wide issues that cannot be handled through good planning by end-users. Public safety answering points (PSAPs), however, represent one area of serious vulnerability that will be addressed in more detail later.

2. Common Themes from CPE Subcommittees

Again, it is up to the end user to investigate the Year 2000 vulnerability of its equipment. Manufacturers’ web sites and 800 numbers are often the best sources of Year 2000 information. Additional sources include industry associations and other entities.

Most manufacturers do have fixes for equipment in their current inventories that may be vulnerable to Year 2000 problems. Many are also offering information and fixes for their "legacy" devices.

Though the vast majority of known Year 2000 equipment vulnerabilities are not serious, only the informed end user can determine how serious that vulnerability is and what should be done about it.

Mr. Cooke described some signs of possible trouble that he asked the FCC to pass on to consumers. For example, if a particular manufacturer does not have a Year 2000 website, or the Year 2000 website is somewhat sketchy, those situations should raise some concerns as to whether that manufacturer has Year 2000 problems with its equipment, whether fixes are available for those problems, and whether the manufacturer can make those fixes available. Similarly, consumers should be wary if the information obtained from the manufacturer’s toll-free telephone number does not indicate that significant testing has been done or includes rather vague promises regarding Year 2000 compliance.

3. Readiness and Testing Subcommittee Reports

General. Mr. Cooke described an analysis by Focus Group 2 that compared the relative complexity of upgrading customer-premises equipment to Year 2000 readiness with the relative criticality of such equipment to a business or other end-user. At one extreme would be a fax machine that could be replaced easily and that is not particularly important to its user. At the other extreme would be the private branch exchanges (PBXs), PSAPs, and the private data networks that are often difficult to replace and that are ordinarily quite important to their users and others.

Consumer Equipment. For fax machines, Mr. Cooke reported that solutions to potential Year 2000 problems are available from suppliers for consumers who seek them. He noted similar situations with other types of consumer equipment such as cellular telephones, PBX key systems, and modems. Regarding consumer equipment for the disabled, he advised it has been difficult to get quantitative or otherwise meaningful information on these devices because they are so customized to the needs of the disabled person.

Private Branch Exchanges (PBXs). Focus Group 2 estimates that only about fifty percent (plus or minus) of the approximately 320,000 PBX key systems in the U.S. now have the necessary upgrades to be Year 2000 ready. Accordingly, it is important for the end-users of these systems to obtain and make the necessary upgrades in a timely manner. Because most if not all of the necessary upgrades are available from manufacturers or other vendors, this appears to be a problem of volume rather than complexity.

Public Safety Answering Points (PSAPs). Focus Group 2 obtained information on PSAPs from the leading vendors and from PSAP service providers who are members of NRIC. Focus Group 2 estimates that, for various reasons, only about 10 percent of the PSAPs in the U.S. are Year 2000 ready. Among the reasons offered for this shortfall have been insufficient capital, a lack of awareness of the problem, and competing regulatory requirements to connect wireless phones to the PSAPs by next year. The current expectation is that calls from the public will continue to go through to PSAPs during the Year 2000 rollover but that some of these PSAPs’ ancillary processes may not work quite as expected. These ancillary processes include date/time logging, tape recording, and automatic dispatch of the appropriate emergency personnel. Should there be some interference with such functions, dispatchers at these PSAPSs may have to use manual or other back-up systems. If such back-up systems are not already available, they should be included in the contingency plans for such PSAPs.

Private Data Networks. Mr. Cooke reports that Year 2000 solutions for private data networks are available from the main suppliers. There are some concerns in this area because these systems are outside the public telephone network and because it seems to be taking a long time to get these private networks upgraded. In addition, it appears that most private data networks will require fairly extensive upgrades. Among the fixes, software upgrades seem to be the most common solution; firmware upgrades could be needed in some instances and may involve return of the equipment to the factory.

4. Contingency Planning Subcommittee

One conclusion is that the larger CPE end-users are generally better able to cope because they already have contingency plans that can be extended or have already been extended to cover the Year 2000. Additional assistance will be needed for smaller businesses and other organizations that are frequently far more vulnerable to interference with their telephone service.

Rather than attempt to develop a specific contingency plan for all such small organizations, Focus Group 2 provides a planning process described through various templates and scenarios. These planning materials include guides for end-users, service providers, manufacturers, and vendors to assist them before, during, and after Year 2000 and other potential date rollover problems. The materials will be made available, along with the subcommittee reports, on the NRIC web site.

Other conclusions are that end-users should focus on potential problems with their own equipment and, in that way, make sure that they can continue to have access to the public switched network to the extent necessary to carry on their businesses or other activities. In addition, everyone should be sharing information as widely as possible; this is not a matter of competition but rather a matter of mutual assistance.

5. Recommendations

The Commission should take steps to discourage telephone users from making unnecessary calls on New Year’s Day of the Year 2000. Such steps might help avoid mass calling events that could trigger excessive call blocking or other interference with the operation of the public network including access to PSAPs. Next, the Commission should encourage telephone users to keep near their phones the local seven-digit numbers for police, fire, ambulance, or other emergency service providers just in case there is a slowdown or other interference with conventional 911-access to these services. In addition, the Commissions should advise smaller end-users that the public telephone network is in good shape for the Year 2000. That knowledge should enable these users to focus more on the readiness of their own equipment and less on the vulnerability of the public network. Finally, during the period September 1999 through March 2000, the Commission should declare a moratorium on any regulatory mandates that involve customer-premises equipment or that otherwise impact network interfaces.

Suppliers and service providers must communicate the current Year 2000 status of their products and, where necessary, the availability of Year 2000 upgrades. They should also share testing strategies and results of such testing with their customers, suppliers, and distributors as appropriate. In particular, they should notify customers, distributors, and others of the anticipated Year 2000 impact on their legacy equipment.

End-users should (a) become informed about potential Year 2000 problems with their telecommunications equipment, (b) inventory all their equipment, (c) check with manufacturers or other vendors to establish Year 2000 compliance status, (d) budget for equipment changes to the extent replacement or other upgrades may be needed, (e) prepare contingency plans, and (f) have all seven-digit emergency phone numbers handy.

C. Focus Group 3 Network Reliability Steering Committee

1. General. Mr. Ray Albers of Bell Atlantic explained the composition of the Network Reliability Steering Committee (NRSC) including a Data Assembly and Analysis Team (headed by Bill Klein of ATIS), a Process & Procedures Team (headed by P.J. Aduskevicz of AT&T), a Facilities Solution Team (headed by Lou Scerbo and John Healy both of Bellcore now Telcordia Technologies), a Procedural Team (headed by Clyde Miller of Nortel), a Best Practices Team (headed by Rich Harrison of NOF), and a Data Analysis and Future Considerations Team (headed by P.J. Aduskevicz of AT&T). The NRIC Network Reliability Focus Group (Focus Group 3) consists of the last two teams. Mr. Albers highlighted some recent findings by the NRSC. He noted that these findings are available on the ATIS Internet web site (www.atis.org/atis/nrsc/document.htm).

2. Outages and Recent Legislation. Mr. Albers provided data on FCC Reportable Outages through 4Q98 (by the number of events) and noted these outages remained in the control range during this period. He also provided data on reportable outages through 4Q98 (by failure category). The greatest number of outages continued to occur in the "Facilities" failure category. Further analysis of these outages shows that a large proportion these outages can be traced to "Procedural Errors" and that this proportion has been increasing.

In light of the June 1998 enactment of federal "One Call" legislation, Mr. Albers provided data on reportable service outages attributable to facility cable dig-ups that affected more than 30,000 customers and that persisted for more than 30 minutes. This data indicates it is not yet possible to determine the impact, if any, of this legislation on the number of dig-ups in the U.S. Mr. Albers explained that the Department of Transportation Office of Pipeline Safety (OPS) has responsibility for implementation of this legislation, that the NRSC Facilities Solution Team participates in these activities, and that a final OPS report is due in June 1999. He also pointed out that states may obtain grants to establish one-call systems provided they employ the best practices.

3. Best Practices, Data Analysis, and Future Considerations. Subcommittee 1 (Best Practices) of Focus Group 3 has been updating and consolidating existing best practices to meet the needs of traditional wireline carriers and to apply those practices to new service providers and new technologies (e.g., ATM, WDM/DWDM, VolP, LMDS, WLL, xDSL, Packet). The subcommittee is currently conducting a survey to determine the proper implementation and effectiveness of these best practices. They expect to have a report on those efforts in July of this year.

Among other activities, Subcommittee 2 (Data Analysis/Future Considerations) has been analyzing the effectiveness of current outage reporting criteria and data, identifying the potential impact on such reports of additional industry segments (such as cable, Internet Service Providers, satellite and wireless) on which the public is becoming more reliant. One goal is to identify new tools for the Commission to consider including in the reporting criteria. The subcommittee has distributed a data questionnaire to determine, among other matters, the extent to which the industry is following earlier subcommittee recommendations on information sharing and mutual aid. An initial report is expected at the next meeting and a final report toward the end of this year.

IV. COMMUNICATIONS PLAN UPDATE

Mr. John Pasqua of AT&T explained that a Communications Plan has been prepared by the NRIC Communications Team to show how NRIC IV will communicate its work to the rest of the telecommunications industry, to industry customers, and to the public. The Team had revised the earlier version of the plan in light of the comments received. A press release would be released soon to publicize the results of the current meeting and that over 50 links would be soon be added to the NRIC web site to facilitate access to information at other web sites. Mr. Pasqua advised that preliminary discussions are underway with regard to the possibility of holding a major, full-day conference highlighting NRIC IV activities in Washington, D.C., in July or August of this year. As part of the anticipated Communications Plan, consideration is also being given to NRIC participation in the National Communications Forum scheduled for October 25-29 in Chicago. In closing, Mr. Pasqua noted a copy of the revised Communications Plan had been provided to meeting participants and he invited comments.

V. CLOSING

Mr. Ianna thanked the focus group and sub-committee participants for all the work that they have done and for the great progress that has been made. He noted three areas of concern highlighted during the meeting:

One area is the international arena. Here Chairman Armstrong and Commissioner Powell are working with the State Department and other agencies to enable NRIC and the U.S. telecommunications industry to assist foreign countries. That assistance would include sharing testing and other Year 2000 information with these countries to assure that the U.S. will continue to have continuity of service with these countries in the Year 2000.

A second area is the smaller local exchange carriers. Here NRIC understands that the relevant associations (such as USTA and OPASTCO) will be increasing their efforts to get the word out to their members regarding the importance of Year 2000 readiness. In addition, NRIC plans to monitor these smaller carriers to make sure progress continues to be made recognizing that, in many cases, these smaller companies only have one switch that may be remediated fairly quickly once the necessary upgrades are delivered.

A third and final area of some concern is the progress of the public safety answering points (PSAPs). Here it seems incumbent on the local exchange carriers that service these PSAPs to insure that their owners understand their obligations to ready this critical equipment for the Year 2000 just as owners of other types of customer premises equipment must take responsibility for that equipment. NRIC will examine additional ways to communicate with the owners of the approximately 7,200 PSAPs in the U.S.

At the request of Mr. Ianna, Ms. MacBride reviewed the procedures for the development and review of NRIC recommendations. She noted that the current recommendations and related information would be available on the NRIC web page. She encouraged interested persons to forward comments on these recommendations by May 1, 1999, to her, to the focus group leaders, or to John Pasqua.

Mr. Ianna again thanked participants, noted that the next NRIC IV meeting will be held on Wednesday, July 14, 1999, and invited questions.

Noting the 31 percent response rate of wireless companies to the FCC’s recent Year 2000 survey, Dr. Hai Tran from GAO asked to what extent the integration of wireline and wireless services had been tested by ATIS. He also asked about the implications of the low wireless response rate for the Year 2000 readiness of 911 emergency services that must integrate wireline and wireless services through the PSAPs.

Mr. Arthur Prest of CTIA responded by noting that meeting participants had been provided with an ATIS Year 2000 Interoperability Test Report, dated April 1999, describing the conduct of wireline to wireless tests including simulations involving PSAPs. The results of those tests indicated no Year 2000 related problems but he explained that all of the switches involved had been made Year 2000 compliant before the testing began. He also noted CTIA has sponsored a wireless industry survey similar to the one conducted by the FCC and that if the results of the two surveys were combined, the overall response rate could be raised rather significantly. Also, in checking with the manufacturers of switches used in the industry, CTIA has found that most all of these switches have already been prepared for the Year 2000 or will soon be made ready.

The meeting was adjourned at 3:25 PM.