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XXXC<6X9`(CourierC    '  ,Michael K. Powell&0Michael Powell .   (2X$ !  'dxd Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5(2X$ !  ($(2X$ !    C<< c$57=AEIMQU43I.1111111 emphasiseoperability NCS3|PHP LaserJet 5Si/5Si MX,,,,,,0(hH  Z6Times New Roman RegularX($3#37=CIQYag1.a.i.(1)(a)(i)1)a)yp% }D~UDUUUUUUU|T%U 1#"i"Xd#"Arial Regular !  _HB.` hp x (#XBrXXruu  uuvvX XX_XXX   & 0      pXX_p     D  MICHAELK.POWELL D Ԍ 0 Ќ  X XX_XXX        pXX_p      Commissioner'08 Ԍ H Ќ  v vX XX_XXX   u u    pXX_pFederalCommunicationsCommission  `   BeforetheYear2000ContingencyPlanningforGovernmentConferenceArlington,VirginiaNovember16,1998      "Year2000ProblemandtheCommunicationsIndustry"    (AsPreparedForDelivery)wwxx  X Xx  x xzzyXX X Xy yXX yzzt!tI.  Introduction  x   {{  Goodmorning.Iamdelightedtobehere,ontheeveofthe400thdaybeforethe X endofMillennium,todiscusswhatis,tomymind,themostpressingissuecurrentlyfacingtheNationandtheglobalcommunity:theYear2000Problem.      Inparticular,IwanttotakethisopportunitytosharewithyouthechallengeswefacewithrespecttothecommunicationsinfrastructureandtodiscusswithyoutheapproachwehavetakentotacklingY2Kinthissector.Letmebeginbydiscussingthecriticalityofthecommunicationsnetwork,thenhighlightsomeoftheuniquehurdleswithrespecttothisindustryaswellassomeoftheuniqueadvantageswehaveinmeetingtheYear2000challenge,and,finally,sayawordabouttheFederalCommunicationsCommissionsapproachtothischallenge.  X?+ ` hp x (#X?   %    yX XyX_XXX  XB.` hp x (#XB  X  ?+ ` hp x (#X?  pXX_p  yX Xy   C  $3C--2  II  .3    zzTheCriticalityandInterdependencyofCommunicationsServices ݌ &!! Ќ X XX  X XXX X_XXX      B.` hp x (#XB  X  ?+ ` hp x (#X?  pXX_p  yX Xy  XB.` hp x (#XB ݌̌  XX  X XXX X_XXX      ypXX_yX XXX_zz  TheYear2000Problemhasclearlydemonstratedtheinterconnectivityand x(## interdependencyofthecommunicationsindustry.Considerthathundredsofmillionsofusersofcommunicationsservicesthroughoutthecountrytransmitvoice,dataandvideoinformationuponthedomesticcommunicationsinfrastructurethatiscomposedofthewirelinetelephonenetworks,cellularandPCSnetworks,satelliteconstellations,broadcastingandcabletelevisionsystems,andtheInternet.  .h)) ! !8" "XXdXXd8 !      Thecommunicationsinfrastructure"likeenergy"isoneofahandfulofbasic   buildingblocksuponwhichallotherindustriesandprogramsrest.Forexample,criticalprograms,suchasDefenseDepartmentcommandandcontrol,FederalReserveelectronicfundtransfers,andMedicarebenefitpayments,dependuponthisubiquitousinfrastructureand,consequently,couldbeseriouslyaffectediftheYear2000Probleminterruptstelephoneanddatanetworkingservices.SenatorBennett,ChairmanoftheSenateSpecialCommitteeontheYear2000TechnologyProblem,wasrightonthemarkwhenhecalledtheglobalcommunicationsinfrastructure"thecentralnervoussystemofmodernsociety."Ensuringthehealthofthisnervoussystemisourcriticaltask.  Whenwesetouttomeetthechallenge,webeganbytakingstockofsomeoftheuniquedifficultiesandadvantagespresentedbythecommunicationssector,inordertodevelopameaningfulYear2000operationplan.Letmesharewithyousomeofourobservations,beginningwiththeuniquedifficultiespresentedbythetelecommunicationssector.tpt  X?+ ` hp x (#X?  tptIII.  UniqueYear2000ChallengesForTheCommunicationsIndustry tppt  t tX_XXX  XB.` hp x (#XB Xtp tX XXX_|  |Thefirstchallengeisduetothenatureofthepublicswitchedtelephonenetwork.Nosingleentityownsorcontrolsit.IntheUnitedStates,forexample,therearethemajortelecommunicationscarriers,liketheBellOperatingCompanies,GTE,AT&T,MCIWorldComandSprint,thatprovideservicetothemajorityofthecountry.Buttherearealso1,300smalltomid-sizeindependenttelephonecompaniesthatservemanyruralandinsularpartsofthecountry. XttX_XXX tp tX XXX_  Moreover,thetimewhenourdomesticeconomyandourdailyconcernscouldbecontainedwithinthebordersoftheUnitedStatesisgone.Wearehighly(andincreasingly)dependentoncommunicationssystemsthatinterconnectoverseas.Therearenumerousmultinationaltelecommunicationsalliancesandforeigncarriersonwhichwedepend.TomeaningfullyanswerthequestionwhetherthetelecommunicationsnetworkwillbeOK,wemustconsiderthefullrangeofdisparateplayersoverwhomnooneentity,governmentorprivate,hascompletecontrol.ThisposesauniquechallengeforusattheFCCandinthegovernmentgenerally.  р  tpttptSecondtppt,asingleendtoendcommunicationordatatransferdoesnot % # necessarilytravelthesamewaytwice.Thebrillianceofthenetworkisthatitisdynamic.Thereareaninfinitenumberofpermutationsandcombinationsofroutingpossibilitiesandserviceeventstotransitavoiceordatacall.AphonecallfromWashingtontoLondononeminutemaytravelonepath,yettheverysamecallaminutelatermaytakeadifferentpath.ThismakesitverydifficulttoanswertheseeminglysimplequestionofwhetheracallfromheretotherewillgothroughonJanuary1,2000.ThisdynamicnaturecontributestothemathematicaldifficultyoftestingtheentirepublictelephonenetworkforYear2000readiness. -P(+   }}    Tomakethepoint,considerthatGTEestimatesthatthenumberofteststhatwouldberequiredtotestallcombinationsofitsequipmentandoperatingsystemswouldbe10tpttpt29tppt!Attemptingtoperformthatnumberoftestsinthetimeremaining,tpttpti.e.tppt,  lessthan13months,issimplyimpossible.      tpttptThirdtppt,thereisasignificantamountofCustomerPremisesEquipment(CPE)that `  isinthesolepossessionofaseeminglyinfinitenumberofpublicandprivateentities.Thesepotentiallyunpreparedcomponentsandsystemsresideattheedgesofthenetwork,wheretheFCCandthecarriersmayknowlittleaboutwhohaswhatandwherewehavelittleornoauthoritytocompelindividualuserstofixtheequipment.CPEandallothertelephoneequipmentmustbeYear2000readyandabletoaccessproperlythetelephonenetwork.      tpttptFourthtppt,legalandregulatoryliabilityissuesarestillsignificantbarrierstothe 0  disseminationoftimelyandcandidinformationabouttheYear2000readinesseffortsofcarriers,serviceproviders,andmanufacturersthatiscriticaltoremedyingtheproblem.Thelegalconcernsincludeissuesofproductdisparagement,antitrustviolations,thirdpartyliability,andcarriervendorcontractualrelations,justtonameafew.Thepalpableanxietyandconcernoverlegalandregulatoryliabilityhasthuscontributedtoanenvironmentwherecompaniesarefearfulofdisclosingtimelyandcandidinformationabouttheirproductsorservices.Theseconcernsnecessitateanapproachthatisrespectfuloftheseconcernswhilesimultaneouslynotlettingthemfrustratethemission.Recent GoodSamaritanlegislationhasaidedthistasksignificantly.  t  tyX XyX_XXX t  t    pXX_p  yX Xy.  zzIV.  UniqueAdvantagesfortheTelecommunicationsIndustry..݌ 0 Ќ X XXX X_XXX      t     XX_typXX_yX XXX_zz  Asdauntingasthechallengesare,wehaveanumberofadvantageswecanleveragetoremedytheYear2000Probleminthetelecommunicationsindustry.    tpttptFirsttppt,telecommunicationsisanindustryinwhichnearunfailingreliabilityis 0 paramount.AsFrancesCairncrossofthetpttptEconomisttpptnotedinherSeptember19,1998   surveyontheYear2000Problem,criticalindustrysectorsliketelecommunications"tpttptdependdisproportionatelyonnetworksttX_XXX tp tX XXX_Ԁtpptandthereforetpttpttendtoemphasisereliabilityand "  continuitytppt."Unlikemanyotherindustries,telecommunicationsmustoperateallday, #! eachandeveryday,withoutanydowntime.Asevidenceofthecommitmenttoreliability,InotethattheBellcorestandardforcentralofficeswitchreliabilityis99.9999percent,oramaximumofthreeminutesofdowntimeoutofover535,000minutesinayear!      Thesuccessofatelecommunicationscompanyismeasuredbythereliabilityofitsnetwork.Themajortelecommunicationscarriersandprovidersunderstandwellthattheypotentiallyfacediminishedgoodwill,regulatorytrouble,legalliabilityandfinancial ruiniftheydonotaddresssatisfactorilytheYear2000challenge.This"betthe ,`'* company"aspectofanythreattonetworkreliabilityisasignificantadvantageinourremediationefforts.   Second,becauseoftheimportanceofreliabilityandcontinuity,  telecommunicationscompanieshaveastrongstableoftrainedtechnicalexpertstoworktheproblem.And,betteryet,manyofthesecompanieshavehadexperiencewithsimilartechnicalchallenges.WhenAT&Twasdivested,theBellsystemhadtopulltheentiredomesticnetworkapartandreassembleitintonewoperationalpieces.Telecommunicationscompanieshavealsoimplementedtollfree800numberportabilityandlocalnumberportability.And,perhapsthemostanalogousexperience,theindustryaddedthecountry'sthreedigitareacode.    р  tpttptThirdtppt,becauseoftheimportanceofnetworkreliability,continuity,inter @  connectivityandinteroperability,thereareanumberoffirstclasstechnicalconsortiumsandprominenttradeorganizationsthathavealonghistoryofdevelopingstandardsandaddressingnetworkissuesandthensharingthatworkwithallitsmembers.IntheUnitedStates,ourtelecommunicationsindustryisactivelyengagedinmultivendorintranetworktestingandhasbeencooperatingonmulticompanyinternetworkjointtesting.Forexample,theTelcoYear2000Forum,whichiscomprisedofeightlargeregionallocalexchangecarriers,hascontractedwithBellcoreandisalreadyperformingintegrationtestingonYear2000-readyequipment.Theirtestingwillbecompletedinthefourthquarterof1998"nearlyonemonthaway"withafinalreportreleasedinthefirstquarterof1999.      Additionally,theAllianceforTelecommunicationsIndustrySolutions(ATIS),whichisanindustry-fundedorganizationwhosemissionistoadvancenewtelecommunicationstechnologies,willbegininteroperabilitytestingonJanuary4,1999,andworkthroughFebruary1999.AccordingtoATIS,thetestsshouldencompassnetworkconfigurationsthatserveover90percentoftheUnitedStates.Inthesecondquarterof1999,ATIS'sfinalreportwillbereleased.  Moreover,theNetworkReliabilityandInteroperabilityCouncil,orNRIC,isanotherimportanttooltheFederalCommunicationsCommissionandtheindustrywillusetoassistitinitsefforttoaddresstheYear2000Problem.MichaelArmstrong,ChairmanandChiefExecutiveOfficerofAT&TandChairmanoftheCouncil,isheadingupthiseffort.NRICwillbeinvaluableincoordinatingtheoveralltesting,collectionanddisseminationofinformation,inadditiontoadvisingtheFCConthestatusofindustryreadiness,andfacilitatingthedevelopmentofcontingencyplans.  tpttptFourthtppt,mostcommunicationsfirmshavecontingencyplansandcontinuityof @)$' operationsproceduresforpotentialnonYear2000relateddisruptionscenarios.Theindustryhasalsoestablishedmutualassistanceproceduresintheeventofaparticularlydebilitatingfailurewherecompetitorswillassistbycarryingtheaffectedcarrier'sorprovider'svoice,dataorvideotrafficontheirexcesscapacity.Theseplans -P(+ andprocedurescanbeadaptedandmodifiedfortheYear2000Problem.Giventheultimateimportanceofcontingencypreparedness,thefactthatsuchplansandproceduresexistinsomeformoranotherwillgreatlycontributetotheindustryhavingtimetoanticipateanypotentialYear2000incident.      Fifthandfinally,thegreatbulkofthecommunicationsinfrastructureislargely `  controlledbyarelativelyfewnumberofcarriers,providers,andmanufacturers.Forexample,intheUnitedStates,thetop20localexchangeandinterexchangecarrierscontrolmorethan97percentofthetotalnumberofU.S.accesslines.Inthemanufacturingcontext,themajorityofthedomesticandinternationaltelecommunicationsindustry'sequipmentcomesfromLucent,Alcatel,Siemens,NorthernTelecom,Fujitsu,andahandfulofothers.~~      0  V.  FederalGovernmentReadinessEfforts  0      Afterconsideringtheseuniquechallengesandadvantages,wecraftedabasicoperatingmodelandY2KreadinessplanthatwebelievewillofferthebestchanceofminimizingthethreatthattheYear2000Problemposesforthenetwork.Ithasafewcentralcharacteristics.Forone,itrecognizestheneedforefficiency.Timeisourenemyandweneedanimblefastactingapproach""Highspeedandlowdrag"asweusedtosayintheArmy.Itisaplanthatleveragestheassetsoftheindustrytothegreatestextentpossibleandrecognizestheresourcelimitationsofouragencyintermsoffundingandlabor,aswellasourtechnicalcapabilities.    XIngeneralconcept,wehaveadoptedapublic-private,"mission-oriented"partnershiptoensurethatusersofcommunicationsservicesenjoyasclosetothesamelevelofqualityandreliabilityonandafterJanuary1,2000,astheydotoday.Theuseoftheterm"missionoriented"isintendedasafilter.Thatis,wescrutinizeeveryproposalorideabyaskingifitwilldirectlyimprovetheprobabilityoffixingthisprobleminthetimegiven.Ifsowedoit,ifnotitisout.IhavenointerestinwhatwehavecometocallCYA2Kapproaches. X  Inbrief,ourapproachhasthreecorecomponents:(1)AdvocacyandOutreach;(2)MonitoringandAssessment;and(3)ContingencyPlanning.Letmesayabriefwordabouteach.  X_XXX           X XXX_    P  Advocacy&OutreachPtQ \QԌ p&!$ ЌX_XXX         }}zz  X XXX_  Inanutshell,ourviewistoneverstoptalkingaboutthisissueandnevermissanopportunitytodoso.And,secondly,deputizeeveryone.Someexamples:  0 ` Neverendinglettercampaign. +p&)` (#` (#   0 ` Articlesintradepublications.,`'*` (#` (#   0 ` Appearatindustryconferences.-P(+` (#` (#   0 ` Providespeechinsertsforallourofficials.` (#` (#   0 ` Holdaconstantstreamofbothpublicandprivateforums.` (#` (#   0 ` Enlistindustryleaderstousetheirresourcestospreadtoword.` (#` (# Monitoring&Assessment p   AnothercriticalobligationoftheCommissionistomonitorindustryYear2000readinesseffortsandtoassessthepaceandextentoftheimplementationofremedialactions.Weemployanumberofmethodstomeetthisobligation.Wehaveconductedbothvoluntaryandmandatorysurveys.Weworkwithindustryumbrellagroupstogettheirviews.And,weconductindustryforums.InJuneandJuly1998,theCommissionorganizedeightroundtableswithrepresentativesofdifferentsectorsofthecommunicationsindustrytofacilitateinformationsharingandseehowtheCommissioncanassistindustryeffortsinaddressingtheYear2000Problem.TheCommissionrecentlyheldaforumonmaintainingCustomerPremisesEquipment,andlatertodaywillbehostingafourhourlongforumonemergencyandpublicsafetypreparedness.  WealsorelyheavilyonNRIC,afederaladvisorycouncil.ItadvisestheCommissionontechnicalissuesandistakingstepstofosterindustrycooperationonYear2000compliancetestingandotherrelatedproblems.And,NRICassistsinourefforttokeepabreastoftheindustrysprogress.ContingencyPlanning P   Contingencyplansarethelastthingyouexecute,butneedtobeoneofthefirstthingsyoudevelop.Thetimeisnowtobeworkingoncontingencyplans.Weare  p lookingforwaystoleverageexistingplans,processesandmechanismstodealwithnetworkfailurecontingencies.Infact,wearelookingatsystemsdevelopedinthecontextofthecoldwartoseewhatwecanmodifytomeetthisnewermoresubtlethreat.Inthatregard,weareworkingwiththeNationalSecurityTelecommunicationsAdvisoryCommittee(NSTAC)andtheNationalCommunicationsSystem(NCS)andthecommunicationsindustrytofacilitatethedevelopmentand,ifnecessary,executionofcontingencyplansintheeventthatamajorservicedisruptionshouldoccur.  VI.  Conclusion  $"     Ourtaskisdaunting.Inthemidstofoneofthemostdifficultanddireperiodsinourhistory,WinstonChurchillonceremarked,"Victoryatallcosts,victoryinspiteofallterror,victoryhoweverlongandhardtheroadmaybe."Tome,SirChurchill'swordsresonatefully,forIamanoptimistandbelievewecansignificantlymitigatetheYear2000threat.     +p&)   TheFCCisfirmlycommittedtothetask.AsHenryStimsonsaid,"IknowthewitheringeffectoflimitedcommitmentsandIknowtheregenerativeeffortoffullaction."Weareinfullactionandwillkeepatituntilthisdangerfadesintothehistorybooks.   Thankyou.#XX B#pX_Xp