PCIA'S COMING OF AGE: 3G SPECTRUM CONFERENCE Washington, DC August 26, 1998 KEYNOTE ADDRESS Richard B. Engelman Chief, Planning & Negotiations Division International Bureau Federal Communications Commission GOOD MORNING AND THANK YOU FOR THAT NICE INTRODUCTION. I AM VERY PLEASED TO BE HERE TALKING WITH YOU THIS MORNING ABOUT A SUBJECT THAT IS NEAR AND DEAR TO MY HEART -- THIRD GENERATION WIRELESS SYSTEMS OR, AS THE INTERNATIONAL TELECOMMUNICATION UNION CALLS IT, "IMT-2000". [HISTORY] AS MANY OF YOU KNOW, THE ITU BEGAN LOOKING AT THIRD GENERATION WIRELESS BACK IN 1985. AT THAT TIME, IT WASN'T KNOWN AS THIRD GENERATION WIRELESS BECAUSE FIRST GENERATION WIRELESS WAS ONLY JUST GETTING STARTED. IT ALSO WASN'T KNOWN AS IMT-2000 -- THAT WOULD COME LATER. INSTEAD IT STARTED AS A CONCEPT: AN AMERICAN AND A CANADIAN SCRIBBLING OUT SOME IDEAS ON A NAPKIN. WHAT WERE THEY LOOKING FOR? * A GLOBAL APPROACH TO WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS THAT WOULD CONVERGE WHAT WAS THEN A MULTITUDE OF DIFFERING NATIONAL CELLULAR SYSTEMS * THE ABILITY TO HAVE GLOBAL ROAMING * THE DEVELOPMENT OF HAND HELD MOBILE WIRELESS TERMINALS THAT COULD BE SOLD IN GREAT QUANTITY AT LOW COST, AND * THE ABILITY TO OFFER HIGH QUALITY VOICE COMMUNICATIONS ALONG WITH A WIDE RANGE OF NEW SERVICES AND CAPABILITIES. THE ITU BEGAN TO LOOK AT THESE IDEAS AND COINED A NEW ABBREVIATION "FPLMTS" (FUTURE PUBLIC LAND MOBILE TELECOMMUNICATIONS SYSTEMS). FROM 1985 TO 1992, OVER A SERIES OF MEETINGS, THE ITU DEVELOPED GENERAL OBJECTIVES FOR FPLMTS AND ADOPTED SEVERAL RECOMMENDATIONS REGARDING THESE FUTURE WIRELESS SYSTEMS, INCLUDING AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF SPECTRUM THAT WOULD BE NEEDED FOR THESE SYSTEMS. THE ITU'S WORK ON FPLMTS REACHED AN IMPORTANT MILESTONE IN 1992 -- AT THE WORLD RADIO CONFERENCE THE ITU DECIDED TO IDENTIFY 230 MEGAHERTZ OF SPECTRUM THAT COULD BE USED FOR FPLMTS ON A WORLDWIDE BASIS BY ADMINISTRATIONS WISHING TO IMPLEMENT FPLMTS. THIS SPECTRUM WAS LOCATED AROUND 2 GHZ AND, AS A POINT OF REFERENCE, LARGELY OVERLAPS THAT WHICH WE ULTIMATELY ADOPTED FOR USE FOR PERSONAL COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES IN THE US. AFTER 1992, THE ITU CHANGED THE NAME FPLMTS TO SOMETHING A LITTLE MORE "MARKETABLE" -- INTERNATIONAL MOBILE TELECOMMUNICATIONS - 2000 (IMT-2000). THE "2000" WAS MEANT TO IDENTIFY NOT ONLY THE SPECTRUM IN WHICH THE SYSTEMS WERE INTENDED TO OPERATE BUT ALSO THE YEAR IN WHICH THE SYSTEMS WERE LIKELY TO COME TO MARKET. THE ITU ALSO CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ITS RECOMMENDATIONS IN A WIDE VARIETY OF AREAS. TO DATE, THE ITU HAS ADOPTED 17 RECOMMENDATIONS ON TOPICS SUCH AS: SERVICES TO BE SUPPORTED BY IMT-2000; NETWORK ARCHITECTURE AND MANAGEMENT; SATELLITE OPERATIONS; REQUIREMENTS FOR THE RADIO INTERFACES; SPECTRUM CONSIDERATIONS; SECURITY PRINCIPLES; SPEECH AND VOICE BAND DATA PERFORMANCE REQUIREMENTS; AND GUIDELINES FOR THE EVALUATION OF RADIO TRANSMISSION TECHNOLOGIES. THIS LAST RECOMMENDATION PROVIDED THE BASIS FOR THE NEXT GREAT MILESTONE ON THE ROAD TO IMT-2000. IN MARCH 1997, THE ITU ISSUED A LETTER INVITING THE SUBMISSION OF PROPOSALS TO THE ITU FOR CONSIDERATION AS IMT-2000 RADIO TRANSMISSION TECHNOLOGIES. PRIOR TO THE ISSUANCE OF THIS LETTER, THE ACTIVITIES OF THE ITU ON IMT-2000 WERE SOMEWHAT "OUT OF THE LIMELIGHT". THERE WAS A "SOLID CORE" OF 50 OR SO INDUSTRY PEOPLE FROM THE U.S. WHO WOULD FAITHFULLY PARTICIPATE IN THE THE DEVELOPMENT OF U.S. POSITIONS AND ITU RECOMMENDATIONS. BUT IT WAS RARE THAT THERE WAS ANY MENTION OF THIS ACTIVITY IN THE TRADE PRESS OR BY TOP MANAGERS IN GOVERNMENT AND INDUSTRY. THROUGH THE ISSUANCE OF THE ITU LETTER, AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE NEED FOR INDUSTRY TO RESPOND TO THE LETTER, IMT-2000 HAS MOVED FROM OBSCURITY TO FRONT PAGE NEWS. STRATEGIES AND POSITIONS ARE BEING DISCUSSED EVERY DAY BY TOP CORPORATE AND GOVERNMENT LEADERS. IMT- 2000 IS HOT. AS MOST OF YOU KNOW, IN JUNE 1998, 10 TERRESTRIAL AND 5 SATELLITE PROPOSALS WERE SUBMITTED TO THE ITU, INCLUDING 4 PROPOSALS FROM THE U.S. THESE PROPOSALS ARE CURRENTLY BEING EVALUATED BY "INDEPENDENT EVALUATION GROUPS" OUTSIDE THE ITU, INCLUDING ONE U.S. EVALUATION GROUP. EVALUATION REPORTS ARE DUE BACK TO THE ITU BY THE END OF THIS SEPTEMBER, AND THE ITU IS SUPPOSED TO BE MAKING ITS KEY CHOICES ON TECHNOLOGIES BY NEXT MARCH. FINAL ITU RADIO RECOMMENDATIONS ARE SCHEDULED TO BE COMPLETED BY THE END OF 1999. THERE WAS A SECOND IMPORTANT EVENT THAT OCCURRED IN 1997: AT THE 1997 WORLD RADIO CONFERENCE, IN RESPONSE TO CONCERNS FROM SOME ADMINISTRATIONS THAT 230 MEGAHERTZ OF SPECTRUM FOR IMT-2000 SYSTEMS MIGHT BE INSUFFICIENT IN THE LONG TERM TO ACCOMMODATE THE ANTICIPATED GROWTH OF WIRELESS SERVICES, THE ITU DECIDED THAT IMT- 2000 SPECTRUM ISSUES SHOULD BE RE-EXAMINED AT THE NEXT WORLD RADIO CONFERENCE (NOW SCHEDULED FOR THE YEAR 2000). THERE ARE TWO ASPECTS OF THIS WORK: THE "REVIEW OF SPECTRUM AND REGULATORY ISSUES FOR ADVANCED MOBILE APPLICATIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF IMT-2000, NOTING THAT THERE IS AN URGENT NEED TO PROVIDE MORE SPECTRUM FOR THE TERRESTRIAL COMPONENT ..." OF IMT-2000; AND, THE "IDENTIFICATION OF A GLOBAL RADIO CONTROL CHANNEL TO FACILITATE MULTIMEDIA TERMINAL OPERATION AND WORLDWIDE ROAMING..." [PRESENT] THE U.S. AND MANY COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD ARE STUDYING THESE ISSUES NOW. I'M QUITE PLEASED THAT PCIA HAS TAKEN A STRONG ROLE IN HELPING THE U.S. TO PROGRESS ITS STUDIES IN THESE AREAS. EARLIER THIS SPRING, PCIA ISSUED A SURVEY OF INDUSTRY TO BEGIN TO DETERMINE WHAT THE DEMAND MIGHT BE FOR NEW "THIRD GENERATION" SYSTEMS IN THE U.S. THE SURVEY RESULTS, ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPECTRUM REQUIREMENTS METHODOLOGY WITHIN THE U.S., HAS LEAD TO SOME VERY EARLY ESTIMATES OF LONG TERM IMT-2000 SPECTRUM NEEDS. TODAY, PCIA IS TAKING ANOTHER BOLD STEP BY SPONSORING THIS CONFERENCE. THE PURPOSE OF THIS CONFERENCE, AS INDICATED IN THE CONFERENCE BROCHURE, IS TO "FOCUS ON THE OVERALL VISION FOR THIRD GENERATION WIRELESS SERVICES AND WHY IT IS IMPORTANT FOR THE U.S. INDUSTRY TO ACTIVELY ENGAGE IN THE INTERNATIONAL SPECTRUM DELIBERATIONS." HOW IMPORTANT ARE THESE DELIBERATIONS? WELL LET ME SAY THAT, OF THE TWENTY PLUS ISSUES THAT WILL BE DISCUSSED AT THE 2000 WORLD RADIO CONFERENCE, VIRTUALLY EVERYONE I'VE TALKED TO, BOTH INSIDE AND OUTSIDE THE U.S., BELIEVES THAT THE IMT-2000 SPECTRUM ISSUE IS ONE OF THE THREE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES. WHY IS IT IMPORTANT? PERHAPS THE MOST IMPORTANT REASON IS THAT THE WIRELESS INDUSTRY IS REALLY BECOMING MORE AND MORE GLOBAL IN NATURE. MANUFACTURERS ARE SELLING THEIR PRODUCTS AROUND THE WORLD. SERVICE PROVIDERS ARE OPERATING IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE WORLD. IT USED TO BE THAT MOST COUNTRIES WOULD NOT PERMIT A FOREIGN COMPANY TO OFFER WIRELESS SERVICES. TODAY, HOWEVER, BASED ON RECENT WTO AGREEMENTS SUCH MULTINATIONAL SERVICE PROVISION IS BECOMING THE NORM. WITH SUCH GLOBAL MANUFACTURING AND SERVICE OPERATIONS, IT IS BECOMING MORE IMPORTANT THE GLOBAL APPROACHES TO SPECTRUM USE BE CONSIDERED. ALSO, WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS IS BIG BUSINESS. SUBSCRIBER GROWTH IS PHENOMENAL. THERE ARE NOW OVER 62,000,000 WIRELESS SUBSCRIBERS IN THE U.S. FORECASTS INDICATE THAT BY THE YEAR 2000 THERE MAY BE AS MANY AT 500,000,000 WIRELESS SUBSCRIBERS AROUND THE WORLD. BY 2015, THERE MAY BE 2.7 BILLION (OR MORE) WORLDWIDE SUBSCRIBERS. GIVEN THE DRAMATIC WIRELESS GROWTH THAT IS FORECASTED, AND THE LEADERSHIP ROLE THAT U.S. INDUSTRY HAS TRADITIONALLY HAD IN THE TELECOMMUNICATIONS MARKETPLACE, I BELIEVE THAT IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT THAT THIS U.S. WORK PROACTIVELY TO DEVELOP POSITIONS ON IMT-2000 SPECTRUM ISSUES THAT WILL ENSURE THAT U.S. REQUIREMENTS AND CONCERNS ARE ADDRESSED. AS YOU WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HEAR LATER TODAY, SOME MEMBERS OF U.S. INDUSTRY HAVE COME UP WITH INITIAL ESTIMATES OF THE FUTURE IMT-2000 SPECTRUM REQUIREMENTS FOR THE 2005-2010 TIME FRAME. WHILE THE U.S. HAS BEEN RELYING ON AN AD HOC GROUP OF PARTICIPANTS IN THE ITU'S IMT- 2000 ACTIVITIES TO DEVELOP ITS POSITIONS, I BELIEVE THAT A BROADER EXPOSURE OF THE WORK DEFINING IMT-2000 SPECTRUM REQUIREMENTS IS NEEDED. TODAY'S CONFERENCE STARTS THE BROADENING OF THAT PROCESS. THIS MORNING, FCC STAFF ARE ALSO TAKING ACTION TO BROADEN THE DEBATE. A PUBLIC NOTICE, COPIES OF WHICH ARE BEING HANDED OUT NOW, IS BEING ISSUED. THIS PUBLIC NOTICE ASKS A NUMBER OF QUESTIONS REGARDING THE SPECTRUM ISSUES RELATED TO THIRD GENERATION WIRELESS/IMT-2000. THIS PUBLIC NOTICE IS INTENDED TO NOT ONLY BROADEN THE DEBATE, BUT ALSO TO HELP CREATE A RECORD ON WHICH THE U.S. GOVERNMENT CAN BEGIN TO FORM ITS POSITIONS. I HOPE THAT EACH OF YOU WILL LOOK AT THIS PUBLIC NOTICE AND CONSIDER RESPONDING TO THE QUESTIONS SO THAT WE CAN MAKE AN INFORMED EFFORT TO ENSURE THAT THE FINAL U.S. POSITIONS ULTIMATELY MEETS YOUR NEEDS. [FUTURE] I TALKED EARLIER ABOUT THE PAST. AND I'VE JUST TALKED ABOUT WHAT'S GOING ON AT THE PRESENT WITH RESPECT TO STUDIES ON SPECTRUM FOR IMT- 2000. I'D LIKE TO CONCLUDE BY TALKING A BIT ABOUT THE FUTURE. AND BEFORE I DO, LET ME PUT IN THE STANDARD FCC DISCLAIMER -- THE VIEWS THAT I AM EXPRESSING THIS MORNING ARE MINE AND DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE VIEWS OF THE FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION ITSELF. THERE'S LOTS OF WORK TO BE DONE IN ORDER TO ADDRESS THE IMT-2000 SPECTRUM ISSUES. SPECTRUM REQUIREMENTS NEED TO BE MORE FULLY DEVELOPED, REVIEWED, AND REFINED. IF ADDITIONAL SPECTRUM IS FOUND TO BE NEEDED FOR IMT-2000 (OR IMT-2000-LIKE) SERVICES, THEN POSSIBLE BANDS THAT COULD BE USED TO SATISFY THOSE REQUIREMENTS MUST BE IDENTIFIED AND SELECTED. THIS WORK NEEDS TO BE DONE QUICKLY. ITU RADIOCOMMUNICATION TASK GROUP 8/1, THE ORGANIZATION THAT IS DEVELOPING THE RADIO RECOMMENDATIONS ON IMT-2000, MUST COMPLETE ITS STUDIES REGARDING THE SPECTRUM REQUIREMENTS FOR IMT-2000 BY ITS MARCH 1999 MEETING. U.S. PROPOSALS FOR ADDITIONAL BANDS FOR IMT-2000, IF ANY, WOULD NEED TO BE COMPLETED PRIOR TO THE 2000 WORLD RADIO CONFERENCE (IF NOT SOONER). THERE'S GOING TO BE A LOT OF WORK TO BE DONE IN DEVELOPING U.S. POSITIONS OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS, AND I CAN GUARANTEE THAT THEY'LL BE A LOT OF CONTROVERSY AND DEBATE BEFORE THESE POSITIONS ARE FINALIZED. WHY? WELL, LET ME CLOSE BY OFFERING WHAT I CONSIDER TO BE SOME "LAWS OF IMT-2000" THAT MAY GIVE YOU A FLAVOR OF WHAT IS TO COME. THESE LAWS ARE PERHAPS SOMEWHAT LIKE THE LAWS OF PHYSICS OR THE LAWS OF SOCCER; THEY PROBABLY WON'T CHANGE BUT THEY ALSO MAY NOT TELL YOU HOW TO GET THE ANSWER YOU'RE LOOKING FOR. LAW ONE -- THE DEMAND FOR WIRELESS SERVICES IS GROWING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GROW AT SIGNIFICANT RATES FOR SOME TIME. [ELABORATE] LAW TWO -- PEOPLE WILL WANT AND EXPECT TO HAVE NEW CAPABILITIES IN THEIR WIRELESS SERVICES. [ELABORATE] LAW THREE -- THERE IS A FINITE AMOUNT OF SPECTRUM, AND MOST OF IT HAS ALREADY BEEN USED. [ELABORATE] LAW FOUR -- THERE ARE A LOT OF COMPETING USES FOR SPECTRUM. [ELABORATE] LAW FIVE -- NO ONE WANTS TO GIVE UP SPECTRUM THAT THEY ALREADY HAVE. [ELABORATE] LAW SIX -- THERE'S NO "FREE RIDE" IN LIFE. SIMILARLY, THERE'S NO SUCH THING AS FREE SPECTRUM. [ELABORATE] WHILE I THINK THE ROAD AHEAD IS LIKELY TO BE BUMPY, I ALSO BELIEVE THAT "WHERE THERE'S A WILL, THERE'S A WAY." IT WILL BE IMPORTANT, INDEED CRITICAL, THAT THE U.S. WIRELESS INDUSTRY FORGE CONSENSUS POSITIONS ON THE IMT-2000 SPECTRUM REQUIREMENTS. IT WILL ALSO BE CRITICAL THAT INDUSTRY AND GOVERNMENT WORK TOGETHER TO FIND SOLUTIONS THAT WILL BE ACCEPTABLE TO BOTH THOSE LOOKING FOR NEW SPECTRUM AND THOSE THAT ARE ALREADY USING THE EXISTING SPECTRUM. WHEN I LOOK BACK AT WHAT'S GONE ON WITH IMT-2000 AND FPLMTS SINCE 1985, I OFTEN THINK OF HOW SLOW THINGS HAVE GONE. IT HAS BEEN 13 YEARS SINCE THE WORK STARTED AND THE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE STILL NOT COMPLETE. YET AT THE SAME TIME, I CONTINUE TO BE IMPRESSED WITH THE EFFORT THAT MADE TO REACH CONSENSUS AND FORGE DECISIONS ON A NATIONAL AND GLOBAL BASIS. THE NEXT TWO YEARS WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING WHETHER A GLOBAL PROGRAM SUCH AS IMT-2000 WILL REALLY BE ABLE TO MEET THE NEEDS OF THE U.S., OR FOR THAT MATTER THE GLOBAL MARKETPLACE. YOU HAVE A CHANCE TODAY TO START SOME DIALOGUE THAT COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF IMPORTANT U.S. POSITIONS AND, PERHAPS, NEW AND BETTER WIRELESS SERVICES FOR THE FUTURE. I HOPE YOU'LL FIND THE DIALOGUE STIMULATING AND I LOOK FORWARD TO WORKING WITH YOU ON THIS IMPORTANT ACTIVITY.